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U.S. Renewable Diesel Market Trends, Drivers, and Future Outlook by 2034

Market Overview

In 2024, the U.S. renewable diesel market was valued at approximately USD 11.30 billion and is projected to reach USD 21.70 billion by 2034, reflecting a robust CAGR of 6.74% over the 2025–2034 period.

Renewable diesel is produced through hydrogenation or hydro-processing of various renewable feedstocks, including used cooking oil, animal fats, vegetable oils, and other organic waste materials. Unlike traditional biodiesel, it is chemically identical to petroleum diesel, making it a true drop-in fuel that can be used in existing engines without modification. This makes RD particularly appealing for heavy-duty transportation, municipal fleets, industrial machinery, and off-road equipment.

In recent years, the market has seen rapid expansion in production capacity, significant investment in refinery conversions, and growing interest from fleet operators and fuel distributors aiming for low-carbon solutions.

Key Market Trends

1. Expansion of Production Capacity via Refinery Conversions

One of the most notable trends is the conversion of conventional petroleum refineries into renewable diesel facilities. Advanced hydro-processing technologies and large-scale retrofits have enabled U.S. production capacity to grow substantially. By 2025, renewable diesel capacity is expected to exceed 5 billion gallons annually, up from less than 1 billion gallons in 2020.

This trend indicates a maturing industry moving toward high-efficiency, large-scale production, supporting both cost competitiveness and operational stability.

2. Shift to Waste-Based and Low-Carbon Feedstocks

The industry increasingly relies on non-food, waste-derived feedstocks, including:

  • Used cooking oil

  • Animal fats

  • Trap grease

  • Low-grade waste oils

This transition not only reduces pressure on food crops but also improves lifecycle carbon intensity, aligns with corporate sustainability goals, and supports a circular economy. Diversifying feedstocks also helps producers mitigate price volatility.

3. Strong Regulatory Support and Incentives

Federal mandates such as the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) and tax incentives, alongside state-level clean-fuel programs, continue to bolster the market. These policies help stabilize margins, encourage new plant investments, and create predictable demand for low-carbon fuels.

4. Transition from Biodiesel to Renewable Diesel

The U.S. transportation sector is increasingly favoring renewable diesel over biodiesel due to RD’s advantages in engine performance, cold flow properties, shelf life, and drop-in capability. By early 2023, renewable diesel production capacity surpassed biodiesel, marking a significant structural shift in the biofuels market.

5. Growing Demand from Fleets, Municipalities, and Industry

Organizations with carbon reduction commitments—including logistics operators, public transit agencies, government fleets, and corporations—are increasingly adopting RD. Its compatibility with existing infrastructure enables rapid decarbonization without heavy capital investments, a trend reinforced by ESG mandates and national clean energy strategies.

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Market Drivers

1. Environmental and Emissions Reduction Requirements

Governmental and corporate decarbonization mandates drive RD adoption. Depending on the feedstock, renewable diesel can significantly cut greenhouse gas emissions compared to petroleum diesel, making it increasingly valuable as emission regulations tighten.

2. Supportive Policies and Incentives

Federal and state programs improve the economic feasibility of RD production by enhancing profit margins, reducing investment risks, and stimulating demand through credit systems. These policies have directly enabled rapid refinery conversions and production scaling.

3. Growth of Large-Scale Production Facilities

Accelerated construction of renewable diesel plants and retrofitting of existing refineries increase supply capacity, leveraging economies of scale, lower operating costs, and better feedstock utilization. Capacity is projected to more than quadruple from early-2020 levels, positioning RD as a mainstream fuel option.

4. Feedstock Flexibility

RD can be produced from a wide array of feedstocks, enabling producers to manage cost fluctuations, reduce dependence on agricultural crops, and meet sustainability standards. This flexibility is critical given rising demand for low-carbon fuels.

5. Strong Sectoral Demand

Heavy-duty transportation, industrial machinery, and power generation sectors are increasingly adopting renewable diesel. RD allows for immediate emission reductions without changing existing fuel infrastructure. Market revenue is expected to nearly double from 2024 to 2034, illustrating strong and consistent demand.

Impact of Trends and Drivers

Production and Supply Chain

Refinery conversions and capacity expansions are strengthening domestic RD supply, reducing reliance on imports, and stabilizing pricing, facilitating more reliable nationwide distribution.

Feedstock Sourcing and Sustainability

Greater use of waste-derived feedstocks reduces the carbon intensity of renewable diesel, enhancing its sustainability profile and aligning the industry with climate goals, while lowering exposure to commodity price volatility.

Market Penetration Across End-Use Sectors

Rising availability supports adoption in:

  • Heavy-duty trucking

  • Public transit

  • Construction and mining equipment

  • Municipal fleets

  • Industrial generators

The drop-in compatibility of RD enables a scalable pathway for carbon reduction.

Regional Dynamics

Regions with stringent clean-fuel regulations, particularly the West Coast, lead adoption. As production capacity grows, RD usage is expected to spread nationwide, enhancing energy diversity across the U.S.

Challenges and Opportunities

Key Challenges

  • Limited availability of sustainable feedstocks

  • Policy uncertainty and potential changes to incentives

  • Competition for waste-derived materials

  • Infrastructure requirements for nationwide distribution

Key Opportunities

  • Innovation in alternative feedstocks, including algae and non-food crops

  • Expansion into maritime, industrial, and aviation applications

  • Integration with sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production

  • Nationwide distribution networks enabling broader adoption

Future Outlook

The U.S. renewable diesel market is expected to continue long-term growth, with a projected CAGR of 6.74%, nearly doubling from USD 11.30 billion in 2024 to USD 21.70 billion by 2034.

Key drivers over the next decade include:

  • Ongoing refinery conversions

  • Increased production capacity

  • Expanded use of waste-based feedstocks

  • Strengthening environmental policies

  • New transportation and industrial applications

  • Integration with SAF and renewable naphtha markets

Renewable diesel is poised to play a central role in decarbonizing the U.S. transportation and industrial sectors, facilitating a transition toward a low-carbon energy future.

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